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Balmus
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:33 pm

Can anyone help me work out a general price movement for a player when they fault on 1st serve? I mean we have the current price and have a general idea of where the price will go if they are to lose the point. How would I go about working out where the price will be after a 1st serve fault?

For example, Player A is currently 2.0 on Betfair, they will go to 2.3 if they lose the point, where will they go if they fault on their first serve? My intuition says 2.04/06 but how can I be more accurate?

PS, I understand WTA and ATP and players hold %s differ a lot but after a method to work it out automatically.

Thanks.
Balmus

Trading96
Posts: 467
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:52 pm

It's best to think of the odds as percentages I think

2.00 = 50.00%
2.30 = 43.48%

6.52% percentage points difference

then you work out the percentage decrease between overall serve win % and 2nd serve point win %
e.g.

Overall serve win % = 66%
2nd serve win % = 50%

24.24% percentage decrease (note this is not just taking one from other)

then you just do 6.52% x 24.24% = 1.58%

final odds = 50%-1.58% = 48.42%

1/48.42% = 2.06

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